Charlie's View
Macro in Minutes: Interest Rates, Bonds & Currency Moves
October 1, 2025
In this episode (2:47 minutes), JCB’s Chief Investment Officer Charlie Jamieson and Senior Portfolio Manager Vijay Murik discuss recent global central bank moves and what they mean for markets and the Australian economy.
Key themes include:
- Global rate moves: Cuts from the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, with more easing expected from the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank of Japan held, but may hike next.
- Australia: Despite a stronger August monthly CPI inflation reading, the RBA held rates steady this week. The cash rate is still likely to move lower, though the timing may be more drawn out.
- Markets: Front-end repricing (shorter-term interest rates or bonds, the “front end” of the yield curve) has occurred, but longer-dated bonds (bonds with longer maturities, the “long end” of the yield curve) remain steady.
- Currency impacts: If the US Fed accelerates its cuts while the RBA moves more slowly, this could place further upward pressure on the Australian dollar.
- Outlook: Inflation is expected to step down later in the year, keeping the path toward lower rates intact, even if the journey is slower.
The takeaway?
The global rate cut cycle is progressing. Despite recent Australian data, inflation is expected to ease, keeping the direction of travel for the RBA clear.
This information is for professional and wholesale investors only and has been prepared by JamiesonCooteBonds Pty Ltd ACN 165 890 282 AFSL 459018 (‘JCB’). Channel Investment Management Limited ACN 163 234 240 AFSL 439007 (‘CIML’) is the Responsible Entity and issuer of units for the CC JCB Active Bond Fund ARSN 610 435 302, CC JCB Global Bond Fund ARSN 631 235 553 and the CC JCB Dynamic Alpha Fund ARSN 637 628 918 (collectively ‘the Funds’). Channel Capital Pty Ltd ACN 162 591 568 AR No. 001274413 (‘Channel’) provides investment infrastructure and distribution services for JCB and is the holding company of CIML.
This information is supplied on the following conditions which are expressly accepted and agreed to by each interested party (‘Recipient’). This information contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It is intended solely for wholesale clients (including sophisticated investors) as defined under sections 761G and 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). JCB is not licensed in Australia to provide financial product advice or other financial services to retail investors.
The information provided should not be considered personal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to invest in the Funds. Recipients should not rely on this information in making investment decisions. A Recipient should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information, and seek professional advice.
Neither JCB, Channel, CIML or their representatives and respective employees or officers (collectively, ‘the Beneficiaries’) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of this information or subsequently provided to the Recipient or its advisers by any of the Beneficiaries, including, without limitation, any historical financial information, the estimates and projections and any other financial information derived there from, and nothing contained in this information is, or shall be relied upon, as a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. All investments contain risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For further information and before investing, please read the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination which is available from www.channelcapital.com.au
This information is supplied on the following conditions which are expressly accepted and agreed to by each interested party (‘Recipient’). This information contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It is intended solely for wholesale clients (including sophisticated investors) as defined under sections 761G and 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). JCB is not licensed in Australia to provide financial product advice or other financial services to retail investors.
The information provided should not be considered personal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to invest in the Funds. Recipients should not rely on this information in making investment decisions. A Recipient should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information, and seek professional advice.
Neither JCB, Channel, CIML or their representatives and respective employees or officers (collectively, ‘the Beneficiaries’) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of this information or subsequently provided to the Recipient or its advisers by any of the Beneficiaries, including, without limitation, any historical financial information, the estimates and projections and any other financial information derived there from, and nothing contained in this information is, or shall be relied upon, as a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. All investments contain risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For further information and before investing, please read the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination which is available from www.channelcapital.com.au
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